Question 1
Early in
2008, the RangkaianPengangkutanIntegrasiDerasSdnBhd(RapidKL), a company
responsible for serving the light rail transit (LRT) needs of a large Eastern
city, was faced with rising operating deficits on its system. Also, because of
a fiscal austerity program at both the federal and state levels, the hope of
receiving additional subsidy support was slim.
The board of
directors of RapidKL asked the system manager to explore alternatives to
alleviate the financial plight of the system. The first suggestion made by the
manager was to institute a major cutback in service. This cutback would result
in no service after 7:00 P.M., no service on weekends, and a reduced schedule
of service during the midday period Monday through Friday.
The board of
RapidKL indicated that this alternative was not likely to be politically acceptable
and could only be considered as a last resort. The board suggested that because it had been over five years
since the last basic fare increase, a fare increase from the current level of
RM1 to a new level of RM1.50 should be considered. Accordingly, the board
ordered the manager to conduct a study of the likely impact of this proposed
fare hike.
The
system manager has collected data on important variables thought to have a
significant impact on the demand for rides on RapidKL. These data have been collected
over the past 27 years and include the following variables:
·
Price per ride (in cents) — This variable is designated P in
Table 1. Price is expected to
have a negative impact on the demand for rides on the system.
·
Population in the metropolitan area serviced by RapidKL— It
is expected that this variable has a positive impact on the demand for rides on
the system. This variable is designated T in Table 1.
·
Disposable per capita income — This variable was initially thought
to have a positive impact on the demand for rides on RapidKL. This variable is
designated (I) in Table 1.
·
Parking rate per hour in the downtown area (in cents) — This
variable is expected to have a positive impact on demand for rides on the
RapidKL. It is designated H in Table
1.
Year
|
Weekly Riders (Y)
(x1,000)
|
Price
(P) per Ride (Cents)
|
Population (T) (x1,000)
|
Income (I)
|
Parking Rate (H) (Cents)
|
1981
|
1,200
|
15
|
1,800
|
2,900
|
50
|
1982
|
1,190
|
15
|
1,790
|
3,100
|
50
|
1983
|
1,195
|
15
|
1,780
|
3,200
|
60
|
1984
|
1,110
|
25
|
1,778
|
3,250
|
60
|
1985
|
1,105
|
25
|
1,750
|
3,275
|
60
|
1986
|
1,115
|
25
|
1,740
|
3,290
|
70
|
1987
|
1,130
|
25
|
1,725
|
4,100
|
75
|
1988
|
1,095
|
30
|
1,725
|
4,300
|
75
|
1989
|
1,090
|
30
|
1,720
|
4,400
|
75
|
1990
|
1,087
|
30
|
1,705
|
4,600
|
80
|
1991
|
1,080
|
30
|
1,710
|
4,815
|
80
|
1992
|
1,020
|
40
|
1,700
|
5,285
|
80
|
1993
|
1,010
|
40
|
1,695
|
5,665
|
85
|
1994
|
1,010
|
40
|
1,695
|
5,800
|
100
|
1995
|
1,005
|
40
|
1,690
|
5,900
|
105
|
1996
|
995
|
40
|
1,630
|
5,915
|
105
|
1997
|
930
|
75
|
1,640
|
6,325
|
105
|
1998
|
915
|
75
|
1,635
|
6,500
|
110
|
1999
|
920
|
75
|
1,630
|
6,612
|
125
|
2000
|
940
|
75
|
1,620
|
6,883
|
130
|
2001
|
950
|
75
|
1,615
|
7,005
|
150
|
2002
|
910
|
100
|
1,605
|
7,234
|
155
|
2003
|
930
|
100
|
1,590
|
7,500
|
165
|
2004
|
933
|
100
|
1,595
|
7,600
|
175
|
2005
|
940
|
100
|
1,590
|
7,800
|
175
|
2006
|
948
|
100
|
1,600
|
8,000
|
190
|
2007
|
955
|
100
|
1,610
|
8,100
|
200
|
a )
What is the dependent variable in this demand
study?
Answer: the dependent variable in this demand study is
weekly riders
b )
What are the independent variables?
Answer: the independent variable is price,
population, income and parking rate
c )
What are the expected signs of the variables thought to affect transit ridership on RapidKL?
d )
Answer: I think Parking rate ,
income, population = positive impact . Price is negative impact
e )
Using a multiple regression program available on a computer to which you
have access, estimate the coefficients of the demand model for the data given
in Table 1. Results of the multiple regression is in Table 2
f)
Interpret each
of the coefficients in the regression equation you have in Table 2.
0 التعليقات:
إرسال تعليق